Maldives Population Projections 2014-2054

No. of pages: 104

Publication date: 11 July 2018

Author: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Government of the Republic of Maldives

Population projections estimate the future size and composition of the population based on the assumptions with regard to fertility, mortality and migration. Both the size and composition of the population provides invaluable information in terms of assessing future trends on labour, education and socio-economic characteristics of the population.

The population projection was developed based on Maldives Population and Housing Census conducted in 2014. Based on the levels and trends of the components of population change, projection assumptions were made differently for Resident Maldivians and Foreigners. In the case of Maldivians, the projections assumed that fertility rate will decline from 2.45 children per woman to 1.9 children per woman. The life expectancy at birth is expected to increase from 73 years to 83 years for male and from 74 years to 83 years for female. The sex ratio at birth of 108 is expected to decrease throughout the projection period to a level of 105 boys for each 100 girls. As for internal migration, the net migration to urban areas is assumed to take place at a constant rate of 2,200 migrants annually. In case of international migration, it is assumed that for period 2014-2020, the Resident Foreign Population to grow at a rate of 10 percent per year. Thereafter, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 2.5 percent per year between 2021 and 2054. These different annual rates of growth take into account the ongoing and planned major infrastructure projects and expected migrant labour.